Investment Strategy: First Quarter 2020
Welcome to the first quarter 2020 investment strategy.
(You can email, print or create a PDF using the convenient icons at the bottom right of each article).
Ten More Years
The most obvious point is the power of mean reversion in equity market returns. Mean reversion in the bond market tends to be over multi-decade cycles, not single decades. Trends have been going on for so long that investors now see them as a permanent state of affairs
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Currencies
The problem for sterling is that Brexit is not done at all
Read more
Commodities
My wife’s Swiss relatives are having to pay 1% on cash savings at the bank so their bottom drawers are packed with Gold bars.
Read more
Commercial Property
Commercial Property still looks good value relative to other income producing asset classes
Read more
Fixed Income
With yields at super-lows and spreads tight the bond market maybe feels a touch complacent.
Read more
Specific Market Reviews: Emerging Markets and Asia
The temporary trade truce is good news, as is much looser US monetary policy .
Read more
Specific Market Reviews: Europe
The eurozone limps along in the shadow of deflation and stagnation.
Read more
Specific Market Reviews: United States
It would take some really horrible data for rates to be cut further from here.
Read more
Specific Market Reviews: United Kingdom
The election result was greeted by at least three cheers in the City.
Read more
General Market Review
Global growth is expected to be sluggish this year with a slowdown in developed economies, notably in the US, being offset by an acceleration in the emerging world.
Read more
Investment Strategy: First Quarter 2020
Welcome to the first quarter 2020 investment strategy.
(You can email, print or create a PDF using the convenient icons at the bottom right of each article).
Ten More Years
The most obvious point is the power of mean reversion in equity market returns. Mean reversion in the bond market tends to be over multi-decade cycles, not single decades. Trends have been going on for so long that investors now see them as a permanent state of affairs
Read more
Currencies
The problem for sterling is that Brexit is not done at all
Read more
Commodities
My wife’s Swiss relatives are having to pay 1% on cash savings at the bank so their bottom drawers are packed with Gold bars.
Read more
Commercial Property
Commercial Property still looks good value relative to other income producing asset classes
Read more
Fixed Income
With yields at super-lows and spreads tight the bond market maybe feels a touch complacent.
Read more
Specific Market Reviews: Emerging Markets and Asia
The temporary trade truce is good news, as is much looser US monetary policy .
Read more
Specific Market Reviews: Europe
The eurozone limps along in the shadow of deflation and stagnation.
Read more
Specific Market Reviews: United States
It would take some really horrible data for rates to be cut further from here.
Read more
Specific Market Reviews: United Kingdom
The election result was greeted by at least three cheers in the City.
Read more
General Market Review
Global growth is expected to be sluggish this year with a slowdown in developed economies, notably in the US, being offset by an acceleration in the emerging world.
Read more
